Health
A New Virus Threat from Bats in China May Be Just One Mutation Away from a Human Pandemic
Scientists warn that HKU5 bat viruses could leap to humans with a single mutation, showing alarming parallels to COVID-19
The world may still be recovering from the seismic impact of COVID-19, but scientists now warn that the next pandemic threat may already be looming—this time from a lesser-known group of bat viruses called HKU5, discovered in China. In a groundbreaking new study published in Nature Communications, researchers reveal that these viruses are dangerously close to becoming human-infectious, with just one genetic mutation standing between them and a potential outbreak.
The research, a collaborative effort between Washington State University, Caltech, and the University of North Carolina, zeroes in on a family of viruses known as merbecoviruses, close relatives of MERS-CoV—the deadly Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus. Unlike SARS-CoV-2, which caused the COVID-19 pandemic, MERS-CoV has an even more terrifying fatality rate of 34%. Now, within this family, scientists have flagged the HKU5 subgroup as an imminent concern.
According to virologist Dr. Michael Letko, the lead author of the study, “HKU5 viruses haven’t been studied much, but our research shows they have the machinery to infect cells. In fact, they might be just a single mutation away from making the jump to humans.” These viruses, which have already been observed jumping to minks in China, are evolving fast—and that’s where the real danger lies.
The central issue lies in the spike proteins, the same molecular tools used by SARS-CoV-2 to invade human cells. Currently, HKU5 viruses use these spike proteins to latch onto the ACE2 receptors in bats. But experts warn that even a slight genetic tweak could enable them to bind to human ACE2 receptors, allowing for direct infection and rapid transmission.
What’s more alarming is that researchers used AlphaFold 3, a cutting-edge artificial intelligence tool, to simulate how these spike proteins might mutate. The AI model accurately predicted how tiny changes could reshape these proteins to attach to human cells—in minutes. Traditional laboratory tests later confirmed these simulations, raising red flags across the global scientific community.
This convergence of AI and virology offers new hope in predicting future pandemics, but it also underscores how fragile the barrier is between animal viruses and human health. The study calls for immediate attention from global health agencies, urging surveillance and in-depth study of HKU5 variants before it’s too late.
As the world grows more interconnected and climate change continues to disturb natural habitats, human encounters with animal-borne viruses are likely to become more frequent. This new study is not just a warning—it’s a wake-up call. If the COVID-19 pandemic taught the global community anything, it’s this: we ignore these signs at our own peril.