Sports
NFL 2025 Win Projections: Simulations Predict NFC Standings Ahead of Kickoff
Using advanced simulations and updated rosters, the first win total projections for each NFC team in the 2025 season are here — and the playoff race already looks fierce.
The wait is over — the 2025 NFL schedule has officially dropped, bringing with it a fresh wave of excitement, speculation, and of course, projected win totals for every team in the NFC.
While opponents and locations have been known for some time, the sequence and timing of matchups revealed in the schedule release has allowed analysts to dig deeper. Travel demands, back-to-back road games, and stretches against top-tier quarterbacks all factor into a team’s potential path to victory — or collapse.
To project win totals for all 16 NFC teams, analysts ran 1 million simulations of the regular season using current 53-man roster predictions (as of May 14). These simulations factored in roster strength, coaching tendencies, travel fatigue, and historical game data, offering a statistically grounded forecast of how each team might perform in the months ahead.What’s Driving These Projections?
In-game scenarios: Play-caller behavior in 4th downs, red zones, and two-minute drills were modeled using analytics-based trends.
Personnel impact: Star quarterbacks, lockdown corners, and injury-prone skill players can swing results across the board. Projections shift in real-time with trades, free agent signings, or preseason injuries.
Schedule structure: Cross-country travel and consecutive tough matchups affect fatigue and preparation. Teams with tighter, regional schedules often have a win probability edge.
Highlights from the NFC Win Projections:
- San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC with one of the highest win projections, thanks to a balanced roster and a favorable mid-season schedule stretch.
- Philadelphia Eagles trail closely behind, boasting one of the most dynamic offensive cores in the league.
- Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys are also strong playoff contenders based on the current data, with both teams seeing consistent simulations pushing them toward double-digit wins.
- Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, on the other hand, fall into the lower end of the spectrum, with roster depth and QB uncertainty dragging their win probabilities below average.
Check Back Often
These projections are dynamic, updating throughout the offseason as injuries, trades, and depth chart shifts occur. For example, the loss of a starting QB could drop a team’s projection by multiple wins — and boost a rival’s chances in turn.
So while the path to Super Bowl LX is long, this May snapshot offers a compelling glimpse into who’s hot, who’s not, and who might just surprise everyone come September.