The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has issued a stark warning: the Australian dollar could suffer a “violent reversal” if Donald Trump proceeds with a fresh wave of tariffs aimed at countries aligned with BRICS.

In a move that sent shockwaves across financial markets, Trump threatened on Monday to impose a 10% tariff on all countries “supporting anti-American BRICS policies,” which includes China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Russia. The announcement triggered an immediate reaction in currency markets, with the Aussie falling 1% to US64.86¢.

UBS warns spike in U.S. tariffs (10–70%) is dragging on global growth. Avg tariff ~16%, adding ~$500 B in import costs. With July 9 deadline looming, markets are jittery. $SPY $DXY pic.twitter.com/wMQjBfrFKj

— MarketPlays (@MarketPlaysApp) July 7, 2025

Adding to the turbulence, Trump signed an executive order initiating 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean goods, although enforcement has been deferred until August 1, giving allies a short window to negotiate.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked economists by holding the cash rate at 3.85%, sparking a temporary rally that pushed the Aussie up 1% to US65.39¢ on Tuesday.

“The Aussie dollar is at risk of a sharp fall,” said Kristina Clifton, CBA’s currency strategist. “AUD could quickly drop by US2¢, US3¢, or even US4¢ if President Trump follows through on his tariff threats.”

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Trump’s BRICS Ultimatum: Where Does Australia Stand?

While Australia has not been explicitly named, its economic ties to China, India, and the wider Asia-Pacific region make it dangerously exposed.

The Australian dollar is often seen as a proxy for Asian currencies, and therefore reacts sharply to any trade headlines involving the region. With BRICS nations in the crosshairs, Australia is “guilty by association” in the eyes of global investors.

“Concerns about an escalation in the U.S. trade war with Australia’s partners has cut short the Aussie’s recent rally,” Clifton warned.

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What Happened in April: A Harsh Reminder

In early April 2025, Trump launched what his administration dubbed “Liberation Day Tariffs”, a sweeping measure that disrupted financial markets and sparked sell-offs across multiple currencies.

Back then, the U.S. dollar surged as a short-term safe haven, but the rally didn’t last. As fears of recession grew, the U.S. Dollar Index posted a historic 10.8% drop in the first half of 2025—the worst performance since 1973.

Ironically, this helped support the Australian dollar… until now.

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August 1: Countdown to Currency Chaos

The new executive order defers tariffs until August 1, allowing a three-week grace period for negotiations. But analysts warn this could be the calm before another financial storm.

“FX markets were largely relaxed heading into July 9. But Monday’s mood was different—like a trauma flashback to Liberation Day,” said Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac.

Franulovich noted that implied volatility had been subdued but is now expected to spike as investors reassess risk.

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A Glimmer of Hope: US-China Dialogue

There is cautious optimism about improving U.S.-China relations. Beijing recently took action to restrict exports of fentanyl precursors—substances blamed by Washington for fueling America’s opioid crisis.

This goodwill gesture has raised hopes that the “fentanyl tariffs”—20% levies imposed by Trump on Chinese goods—might be lifted. Franulovich believes such a move could “unlock a material reset for the Aussie.”

“The U.S.-China truce appears intact for now. That’s the silver lining,” he added.

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But Vietnam Complicates the Equation

The recent interim trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam, which slaps a 40% tariff on trans-shipped goods, may pose a new headache for China and, by extension, Australia. Many Chinese firms have rerouted goods through Vietnam to bypass existing U.S. tariffs—a loophole this new agreement aims to close.

The message is clear: even indirect trade routes are now under Trump’s scrutiny.

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Australia’s Silent Tightrope

Although Australia has not publicly aligned with BRICS, its reliance on China for exports—particularly iron ore and agricultural products—makes it vulnerable. If Trump views Australia’s neutrality as complicity, tariffs or financial retaliation could follow.

“Even with stable interest rates, the Aussie can’t escape Trump’s trade war shadow,” Clifton emphasized.

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Conclusion: Is the Rebound Just a Mirage?

I'm not forecasting anything.

But, BABA along with many of the 🇨🇳 companies have suffered through US propaganda & malicious tariff threats. Today is no different! pic.twitter.com/IXGFBET2uz

— Trader Chris (@5littlebass) July 7, 2025

The RBA’s surprise decision gave the Australian dollar a short-term boost, but experts believe the real driver will be Trump’s next move. Will the U.S. President follow through on his tariff threats or seek last-minute deals?

Until then, currency markets are jittery—and investors are watching every headline, every tweet, every diplomatic signal.

Because for the Aussie dollar, the worst may still be ahead.

In a move that has shoppers buzzing, Aldi — the no-frills German supermarket giant — has launched an online grocery delivery service in Australia for the very first time. Partnering with DoorDash, the pilot program kicks off in Canberra from July 9, after what many Aussies would call a very long wait.

This is a historic first for Aldi Australia, which has long resisted going digital — even as competitors like Woolworths and Coles have aggressively pushed into the online space.

Aldi stores in the UK change details on their Israeli dates to deceive buyers into thinking they are South African. pic.twitter.com/YYsIsPAzfp

— Quds News Network (@QudsNen) March 26, 2024

“Our customers have been asking for us to go online for quite some time now,” said Aldi’s Group Buying Director Simon Padovani-Ginies, in a statement to NewsWire. “There are times when you simply can’t get to a grocery store… and without Aldi participating in that convenience channel, [customers] are paying higher prices.”

So what’s changing exactly? Starting this week, Aldi customers in Canberra can browse the entire Aldi range — over 1,800 items — from the comfort of their homes, then have their orders delivered straight to their doorstep. From fresh Aussie fruits and vegetables, to chilled meats, frozen items, snacks, dairy, and household essentials — it’s all there.

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A Decade in the Making

For years, Aldi stood firm against the tide of digital transformation in retail, arguing that its low-cost model couldn’t support the logistics of home delivery. But the COVID-19 pandemic, which reshaped global consumer habits, seems to have been the tipping point.

“Particularly after Covid,” said Padovani-Ginies, “our customers have been telling us they would love to be able to access our products more conveniently online.”

Despite growing competition in the supermarket space, Aldi claims this rollout isn’t about catching up with rivals. Instead, it’s about meeting customer expectations.

“We’ve been monitoring customer sentiment and the ongoing growth of the online channel,” he said. “We now have a partnership that allows us to deliver it to our customers in a way that benefits the efficiency of the business and provides our customers exactly what they are looking for.”

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How It Works: Aldi x DoorDash

To access Aldi’s delivery service, customers will need to download the DoorDash app, search for “Aldi,” and then shop like they would with any food delivery platform. Shoppers can place on-demand orders or select a delivery window that suits them.

Prices will be mostly the same as in-store, but Aldi confirmed that some variances will apply, particularly due to DoorDash’s delivery and service fees — a standard across the grocery delivery space.

“There will be some price variances that customers will experience when they shop the app versus what they are used to paying in store,” Aldi said. “But DoorDash applies delivery and service fees that are standardised across all grocers in the vertical.”

Despite the added cost, Aldi reaffirmed its core commitment: affordability. “It is our intention to make sure that we are the most affordable alternative — whether that is bricks and mortar or buying online,” said the company.

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Canberra Goes First, But Nationwide Plans Are Clear

While this trial is limited to Canberra, Aldi has made it clear that this is just the beginning. The company is aiming to eventually roll out delivery to 85% of Australian households.

The selection available through the DoorDash app is vast — and Aldi is betting big that once shoppers experience the convenience, they’ll keep coming back.

Industry experts say this is a smart move, albeit long overdue. With e-commerce rapidly becoming essential in modern retail, and consumer expectations higher than ever, Aldi’s move into digital marks a seismic shift in its business model — and perhaps the start of a new era.

Aldi supermarkets to finally launch delivery in Australia after 25 years: 'This is huge' https://t.co/wj4liCkI0r

— Daily Mail Australia (@DailyMailAU) July 7, 2025

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What Shoppers Can Expect Next

• Live from July 9: Aldi delivery begins in Canberra.
• Over 1,800 products: Including fresh produce, frozen goods, and everyday essentials.
• Via DoorDash app: Download the app, search “Aldi”, place your order.
• Fees apply: Delivery and service fees are consistent with other grocers.
• Nationwide rollout expected: Goal is to reach 85% of Australian households.

The move follows a surge in online grocery shopping that started during COVID lockdowns and has since become a permanent consumer trend. And although Aldi may have taken longer than its rivals to join the digital race, the company is now poised to carve out a significant share of the market — especially among shoppers looking to balance value with convenience.

So if you’re in Canberra, lucky you — you get first dibs. For the rest of Australia, the Aldi delivery van may be pulling up to your driveway sooner than you think.

In a move that sent ripples through financial markets and left economists stunned, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has opted to hold the official cash rate steady at 3.85% for July, despite widespread expectations of a cut.

It was a bold defiance of market confidence. According to interest rate derivatives tracked by LSEG, there was a 96% chance priced in for a 0.25 percentage point cut. But that expectation was upended when RBA Governor Michele Bullock stepped up and delivered a curveball: no change.

The Reserve Bank has surprised economists by holding interest rates steady at 3.38%. The move coming despite near certainty that the cash rate would be cut again, with the RBA Governer saying "The Board continues to judge that it's appropriate to maintain a cautious, gradual… pic.twitter.com/EvO0LpOhr8

— 7NEWS Australia (@7NewsAustralia) July 8, 2025

“A Little More Information”

Explaining the surprise decision, the RBA board cited the need for “a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis.” The remark is already being dissected across boardrooms and newsrooms — especially given that May inflation numbers came in softer than expected, and first-quarter GDP showed slowing growth.

“The board felt it was prudent to wait for the quarterly Consumer Price Index data due on July 30,” said Governor Bullock, speaking to journalists in Sydney. She maintained that monthly inflation figures lacked reliability, and it was premature to act without stronger confirmation.

Split at the Top

For the first time, the RBA revealed a vote split among board members: six supported holding the rate, while three voted for a cut. Though the identities of the dissenters weren’t disclosed, the revelation marks a notable moment of transparency for the bank.

This rare disclosure — a clear indication of internal division — has prompted questions about the RBA’s broader communication strategy.

Communication Breakdown?

Facing the press, Bullock was grilled about whether the central bank’s forward guidance had failed, especially after economists and investors alike were caught off guard.

She pushed back, saying, “We can’t signal a decision before the board meets.” She also claimed the bank’s quarterly statements were now “much clearer” than they used to be, implying that analysts had perhaps read too much into softer monthly data.

But not everyone is buying that.

Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP, didn’t mince words. “I’m extremely surprised by the decision. Honestly, I think it’s the wrong decision,” she said on air, warning that inflation concerns might be overstated and the RBA’s caution could stall economic recovery.

“This is basically telling us they don’t trust the monthly indicator,” Mousina added. “They want to wait and see the full quarterly picture.”

What’s Next? All Eyes on August

The next interest rate decision is scheduled for August 12, and the market now pivots its full attention to the July 30 CPI data.

Will that be the green light for easing? According to Bullock, the central bank is expecting the figures to “validate” the current path. But in a post-pandemic economy riddled with global uncertainties, validation may be easier said than achieved.

Global trade tensions, particularly the looming US-China tariff battles, are already casting a shadow. The RBA’s post-meeting statement referenced the risks of delayed household and corporate spending due to the uncertainty.

“There are uncertainties around how firms will respond with pricing and wages,” the board noted, hinting that weak productivity and tight labor market dynamics remain stubborn hurdles.

The Ripple Effect: Markets, Currency, and Sentiment

Financial markets were anything but calm after the announcement. The Australian dollar, which had hovered around 65.1 US cents, spiked to 65.5 within minutes of the decision. By 3 PM AEST, expectations for the next rate move flipped between a hold and a cut, showing just how destabilizing the move was to investor sentiment.

Even consumer confidence may take a hit, particularly for mortgage holders and businesses banking on cheaper credit to ease cost burdens.

#BREAKING: The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold at 3.85% in a surprise move.

It had been widely believed the bank was on the precipice of cutting rates by another 0.25% in what would've been Australia's first back-to-back rates cut since the COVID pandemic.

More to… pic.twitter.com/KLxPLH2U9F

— 10 News (@10NewsAU) July 8, 2025

The Big Picture: A Delicate Balancing Act

The RBA has been walking a tightrope since November 2023, when the cash rate peaked at 4.35% after an aggressive cycle of 13 rate hikes. It has since eased twice — in February and May — signaling the beginning of a loosening phase.

However, holding firm at 3.85% in July raises a critical question: Is the bank falling behind the curve, or simply playing it safe?

For now, economists, businesses, and households alike are left hanging — waiting for “a little more information” that could change everything.