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PFT Week 1 NFL picks 2025 Florio and Simms clash on 7 shocking games

The new NFL season opens with Mike Florio and Chris Simms divided on bold underdog picks that could shake up Week 1. PFT Week 1 NFL picks 2025 Florio and Simms clash on 7 shocking games

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PFT Week 1 NFL Picks 2025 Florio vs Simms disagree on 7 games
Mike Florio and Chris Simms face off with bold Week 1 NFL picks as the 2025 season kicks off.

The wait is over. The 2025 NFL season is here, and so is the long-running tradition of Pro Football Talk’s (PFT) weekly picks featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms. Every season, their predictions spark heated debates, and this year’s kickoff slate might be the most divisive yet.

With seven games where the two experts are at odds, fans are already bracing for fireworks. Simms is taking underdogs straight up in multiple contests, while Florio leans on proven rosters and veteran playmakers. Let’s break down the big clashes and surprising calls that headline Week 1.


Cowboys at Eagles: Banner night drama

The season opener sees the Philadelphia Eagles celebrating their second banner while hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Will the trade of Micah Parsons motivate Dallas to spoil the party?

  • Florio’s pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 17
  • Simms’s pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20

Both analysts back Philly, but Florio sees a bigger margin.

PFT Week 1 NFL Picks 2025 Florio vs Simms disagree on 7 games
Jalen Hurts (1), quarterback de los Eagles de Filadelfia, entrega el balón a Saquon Barkley (26), corredor, durante los ejercicios de calentamiento previo a un partido de pretemporada de la NFL en contra de los Bengals de Cincinnati, el jueves 7 de agosto de 2025, en Filadelfia. (AP Foto/Matt Slocum)

Chiefs at Chargers: Can the window close?

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the dynasty of the AFC, but whispers of decline grow louder. The Los Angeles Chargers, led by Justin Herbert, want to strike first.

  • Florio: Chiefs 21, Chargers 17
  • Simms: Chiefs 28, Chargers 24

No split here — both see Patrick Mahomes still in control.


Buccaneers at Falcons: A southern rivalry

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were swept by the Atlanta Falcons last year, but Florio believes redemption is coming.

  • Florio: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 24
  • Simms: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20

This is the first major disagreement. Simms backs the Birds, Florio rides with Tampa.


Bengals at Browns: Rivalry reset

The Cincinnati Bengals have been slow starters in recent years, but Florio predicts a breakout against the Cleveland Browns.

  • Florio: Bengals 31, Browns 17
  • Simms: Bengals 27, Browns 24

Both see Joe Burrow leading the way, though Simms expects a closer finish.

PFT Week 1 NFL Picks 2025 Florio vs Simms disagree on 7 games

Dolphins at Colts: Emotions in Indy

This one carries extra weight as it marks the first Colts game since the passing of owner Jim Irsay.

  • Florio: Colts 23, Dolphins 20
  • Simms: Dolphins 24, Colts 21

Simms goes with Miami Dolphins firepower, while Florio senses an emotional lift for Indy under Daniel Jones.


Raiders at Patriots: Statue outside, battle inside

The Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots where a statue of former Raiders owner Al Davis still stands outside Gillette Stadium.

  • Florio: Patriots 23, Raiders 17
  • Simms: Patriots 23, Raiders 17

Both agree the Pats prevail with a disciplined home performance.


49ers at Seahawks: A divisional war

As Christian McCaffrey goes, so do the San Francisco 49ers. But Simms believes the Seattle Seahawks are primed to upset.

  • Florio: 49ers 27, Seahawks 20
  • Simms: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20

Another big disagreement, and perhaps the NFC West’s most defining game.


Lions at Packers: The Parsons effect

Green Bay stunned the league by acquiring Micah Parsons, instantly shifting perceptions of the Green Bay Packers.

  • Florio: Packers 24, Lions 20
  • Simms: Lions 28, Packers 27

Simms sticks with the Detroit Lions, who have won three straight at Lambeau. Florio believes the streak ends.


Ravens at Bills: Lamar in prime time

Few quarterbacks shine in prime time like Lamar Jackson. Against the Buffalo Bills, he aims to add another statement win.

  • Florio: Ravens 30, Bills 27
  • Simms: Ravens 30, Bills 21

Here, both analysts agree — Baltimore is simply too dangerous under the lights.


Vikings at Bears: Ben Johnson’s big debut

The Minnesota Vikings face a rejuvenated Chicago Bears coached by offensive mastermind Ben Johnson.

  • Florio: Vikings 24, Bears 20
  • Simms: Bears 23, Vikings 20

This might be the most intriguing underdog call, with Simms putting faith in Chicago’s new era.


What it all means

Week 1 offers more than just predictions — it highlights the shifting power struggles in the NFL. Simms’s willingness to ride with underdogs sets him apart, while Florio’s steady reliance on proven franchises could give him the edge if experience prevails.

One thing is certain: when Florio and Simms disagree, fans win. Their contrasting lenses spark debates that fuel the passion of football season.

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After Caleb Williams’ miracle, should the Bears really have gone for two?

One impossible touchdown changed everything — but Chicago’s season may have been decided by what happened next

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Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years
Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years

For one breathtaking moment, football stopped making sense.

With seconds left in a divisional-round playoff game, Caleb Williams launched a prayer — a 50-plus-yard, off-balance, back-foot moon shot — and somehow, impossibly, it found Cole Kmet in the end zone. It was the kind of touchdown that instantly joins NFL folklore, the sort of play fans remember for decades.

Suddenly, the Chicago Bears were one extra point away from tying the Los Angeles Rams — a scenario no one could have imagined just moments earlier.

And that’s when the question arrived, loud and unavoidable:

Why not go for two?

The dream-big argument

If Chicago converts the two-point try, the Rams are done. Season over. The Bears move one game away from the Super Bowl, potentially facing either a second-year quarterback or an injury replacement in the AFC. No matchup in the NFL is easy, but this was a window — and those windows don’t stay open long.

Ask Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino how rare Super Bowl chances truly are. Between them, 38 seasons, one Super Bowl appearance each. Even greatness doesn’t guarantee multiple shots.

Momentum, belief, shock value — everything screamed end it now. One play. One decision. Push all the chips to the middle.

But football decisions aren’t made in the clouds. They’re made in film rooms.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


Why Chicago didn’t gamble

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson didn’t flinch. Replays showed him calm, unmoved, almost indifferent to the miracle unfolding. He knew the touchdown created options — but also responsibility.

Because miracles don’t stack.

Just minutes earlier, Chicago had first-and-goal at the Rams’ 5-yard line. Three ineffective runs by De’Andre Swift and a failed fourth-down pass told Johnson everything he needed to know about his short-yardage confidence.

After the game, Johnson explained it plainly.

“Our goal-to-go situations hadn’t gone very cleanly,” he said. “Our inside-the-5 plan hadn’t worked out like we hoped. I just felt better about taking our chances in overtime.”

There was also time left — 13 seconds and two Rams timeouts. One explosive play, maybe a penalty, and Los Angeles could still have stolen it with a field goal even after a failed conversion.

So Chicago chose survival over glory.

How it unraveled anyway

The Bears lived to fight in overtime — and then watched their season collapse anyway. A brutal interception. A defensive breakdown. Game over.

And just like that, Williams-to-Kmet joined a heartbreaking fraternity: iconic plays that didn’t change the ending. Think Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald in Super Bowl XLIII. Think Julio Jones and that impossible toe-tap in Super Bowl LI.

Legendary moments — frozen in time — attached to losses.

So… was it the wrong call?

Emotionally? Maybe.

Strategically? Probably not.

Coaches don’t get paid to chase vibes. They get paid to trust evidence. And Chicago’s evidence said a single, all-or-nothing snap wasn’t the best bet.

That doesn’t make it satisfying. It just makes it honest.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


What this moment really means for Chicago

The Bears don’t leave this game empty-handed. They leave with something rarer than a win: belief.

You can’t build a franchise on miracle throws — but you can build a culture on refusing to quit. This team fought until the very last second, and that matters more than fans often admit.

Williams will be just 24 entering the 2026 season. Think about what he might look like at 27, 28, 29. There are no guarantees — Rodgers and Marino taught us that — but this is as good a foundation as any team could ask for.

Years from now, if Chicago is lucky, Williams-to-Kmet won’t be remembered as a cruel “what if.”

It will be remembered as the beginning.

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Kevin Durant Drops 39 as Rockets Edge Timberwolves 110-105 in Season Opener

Season-high night from Kevin Durant lifts Houston past Minnesota in key Western Conference clash

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Kevin Durant celebrates after scoring a season-high 39 points in the Rockets’ 110-105 win over the Timberwolves
Kevin Durant celebrates after scoring a season-high 39 points in the Rockets’ 110-105 win over the Timberwolves

The former MVP delivered a dominant performance on Friday night, pouring in a season-high 39 points to lead the Rockets to a hard-fought 110-105 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first meeting between the two Western Conference contenders this season.

Durant was nearly unstoppable, knocking down 6 of 8 three-pointers while shooting an efficient 11-of-18 from the field. He also went 11-for-14 from the free-throw line, repeatedly punishing Minnesota’s defense in clutch moments.

The outing marked Durant’s 14th game this season with at least 30 points for Houston. It also came just two nights after a frustrating performance against Oklahoma City, where he scored 19 points on 7-of-23 shooting and missed all five of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Rockets Rally Late Behind Durant

Houston got key contributions across the roster. Alperen Sengun posted a strong double-double with 25 points and 14 rebounds, though he fouled out with 1:19 remaining after being called for an offensive foul.

Amen Thompson added 14 points and seven rebounds, while rookie Reed Sheppard chipped in 14 points of his own, hitting four of his six attempts from three-point range.

The Timberwolves held a slim 82-81 edge after a tightly contested third quarter, but the game swung midway through the fourth. Houston went on a decisive 19-9 run, capped by a three-pointer from Jabari Smith Jr., to seize a 100-91 lead. Durant scored 10 points during that stretch, firmly taking control.

Timberwolves Push Back, Fall Short

Minnesota refused to go quietly. Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels sparked a late 12-5 surge, trimming Houston’s lead to just 105-103 with 1:09 left.

Kevin Durant celebrates after scoring a season-high 39 points in the Rockets’ 110-105 win over the Timberwolves


But once again, Durant delivered under pressure. He calmly sank four free throws in the final seconds to seal the win, pushing the Rockets’ lead to 109-103 with 22.1 seconds remaining.

Randle matched Durant with 39 points of his own, shooting 14-of-25 from the floor and 9-of-11 from the line. Naz Reid was a force off the bench with 25 points and 10 rebounds, draining five of seven three-pointers. Rudy Gobert added 10 points and 13 boards.

Edwards Sidelined, Standings Tighten

Minnesota played without star guard Anthony Edwards, who missed his second straight game due to a right foot injury. Edwards has now sat out nine games this season because of foot and hamstring issues, and with a back-to-back matchup against the San Antonio Spurs looming, a third consecutive absence appears likely.

With the loss, the Timberwolves fall to 27-15 but remain hot overall, having won seven of their last 10 games. The Rockets improve to 24-15, though they have dropped five of their last eight contests.

Houston now sits 1.5 games behind Minnesota in the Western Conference standings, holding onto the fifth seed—and with Kevin Durant playing at this level, that gap may not last long.

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Real Madrid Booed by Angry Fans Before Grinding Out La Liga Win Over Levante

Whistles and white handkerchiefs at Santiago Bernabeu set the tone before Mbappé and Asencio rescue Madrid in tense 2-0 victory

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Real Madrid players celebrate after Kylián Mbappé opened the scoring in the 2-0 La Liga win over Levante at Santiago Bernabeu
Real Madrid players celebrate after Kylián Mbappé opened the scoring in the 2-0 La Liga win over Levante at Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid endured a hostile atmosphere at the Santiago Bernabeu before steadying themselves to secure a crucial 2-0 La Liga victory over Levante on Saturday. Disgruntled home fans made their frustration clear even before kickoff, jeering, booing, and waving white handkerchiefs in protest following a turbulent week for the club.

The anger stemmed from consecutive defeats and a sudden managerial shake-up. Madrid had sacked head coach Xabi Alonso after losing the Spanish Super Cup final to Barcelona, only to then suffer an embarrassing Copa del Rey defeat against a second-division side in the first match under his successor.

Newly appointed coach Álvaro Arbeloa, promoted from the club’s B team, faced immense pressure heading into the Levante clash. Another slip, especially at home against a side battling relegation, could have further inflamed tensions.

Nervy First Half Under Hostile Stands

Despite Madrid’s superior pedigree, Levante matched the hosts for much of the first half. The visitors were organized and bold, refusing to sit back as Madrid struggled to impose themselves amid the toxic atmosphere in the stands. Chances were limited, and whistles frequently echoed around the Bernabeu whenever moves broke down.

Madrid’s breakthrough finally arrived in the 58th minute. Kylian Mbappé, restored to the starting lineup after recovering from a left knee sprain, was brought down in the box by Adrián de la Fuente. Mbappé calmly converted the resulting penalty, easing the tension and sparking visible relief among players and supporters alike.

Asencio Seals the Win

Just seven minutes later, Madrid doubled their lead. Raúl Asencio rose highest to power home a header from a corner delivered by Arda Güler. The goal effectively settled the contest and finally quieted the protests inside the stadium.

“It was important to win today,” Arbeloa said after the match. “We knew where we were coming from. It had been a very difficult week, and the only way to respond was with a win in front of our fans.”

Real Madrid players celebrate after Kylián Mbappé opened the scoring in the 2-0 La Liga win over Levante at Santiago Bernabeu


Key Players Return as Madrid Regain Stability

The match also marked the return of several regular starters. Jude Bellingham was back in the lineup after being left out of the Copa del Rey loss at Albacete, a decision that had raised eyebrows earlier in the week. Arbeloa opted for experience and stability this time, a move that ultimately paid off.

Mbappé, who had featured in only one of Madrid’s previous four matches, looked sharp and decisive on his return, underlining his importance during a turbulent phase for the club.

Title Race Tightens Again

Despite their recent struggles, the victory allowed Real Madrid to close within one point of league leaders Barcelona, who are set to visit Real Sociedad on Sunday. While questions remain about Madrid’s consistency and the sudden coaching change, the result offered a much-needed boost and a brief respite from the storm.

For now, Madrid have steadied the ship—but the reaction from their fans made it clear that patience is wearing thin, and performances like this will be expected rather than celebrated.

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