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PFT Week 1 NFL picks 2025 Florio and Simms clash on 7 shocking games

The new NFL season opens with Mike Florio and Chris Simms divided on bold underdog picks that could shake up Week 1. PFT Week 1 NFL picks 2025 Florio and Simms clash on 7 shocking games

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5 months ago

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PFT Week 1 NFL Picks 2025 Florio vs Simms disagree on 7 games
Mike Florio and Chris Simms face off with bold Week 1 NFL picks as the 2025 season kicks off.

The wait is over. The 2025 NFL season is here, and so is the long-running tradition of Pro Football Talk’s (PFT) weekly picks featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms. Every season, their predictions spark heated debates, and this year’s kickoff slate might be the most divisive yet.

With seven games where the two experts are at odds, fans are already bracing for fireworks. Simms is taking underdogs straight up in multiple contests, while Florio leans on proven rosters and veteran playmakers. Let’s break down the big clashes and surprising calls that headline Week 1.

Cowboys at Eagles: Banner night drama

The season opener sees the Philadelphia Eagles celebrating their second banner while hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Will the trade of Micah Parsons motivate Dallas to spoil the party?

  • Florio’s pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 17
  • Simms’s pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20

Both analysts back Philly, but Florio sees a bigger margin.

PFT Week 1 NFL Picks 2025 Florio vs Simms disagree on 7 games
Jalen Hurts (1), quarterback de los Eagles de Filadelfia, entrega el balón a Saquon Barkley (26), corredor, durante los ejercicios de calentamiento previo a un partido de pretemporada de la NFL en contra de los Bengals de Cincinnati, el jueves 7 de agosto de 2025, en Filadelfia. (AP Foto/Matt Slocum)

Chiefs at Chargers: Can the window close?

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the dynasty of the AFC, but whispers of decline grow louder. The Los Angeles Chargers, led by Justin Herbert, want to strike first.

  • Florio: Chiefs 21, Chargers 17
  • Simms: Chiefs 28, Chargers 24

No split here — both see Patrick Mahomes still in control.

Buccaneers at Falcons: A southern rivalry

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were swept by the Atlanta Falcons last year, but Florio believes redemption is coming.

  • Florio: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 24
  • Simms: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20

This is the first major disagreement. Simms backs the Birds, Florio rides with Tampa.

Bengals at Browns: Rivalry reset

The Cincinnati Bengals have been slow starters in recent years, but Florio predicts a breakout against the Cleveland Browns.

  • Florio: Bengals 31, Browns 17
  • Simms: Bengals 27, Browns 24

Both see Joe Burrow leading the way, though Simms expects a closer finish.

PFT Week 1 NFL Picks 2025 Florio vs Simms disagree on 7 games

Dolphins at Colts: Emotions in Indy

This one carries extra weight as it marks the first Colts game since the passing of owner Jim Irsay.

  • Florio: Colts 23, Dolphins 20
  • Simms: Dolphins 24, Colts 21

Simms goes with Miami Dolphins firepower, while Florio senses an emotional lift for Indy under Daniel Jones.

Raiders at Patriots: Statue outside, battle inside

The Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots where a statue of former Raiders owner Al Davis still stands outside Gillette Stadium.

  • Florio: Patriots 23, Raiders 17
  • Simms: Patriots 23, Raiders 17

Both agree the Pats prevail with a disciplined home performance.

49ers at Seahawks: A divisional war

As Christian McCaffrey goes, so do the San Francisco 49ers. But Simms believes the Seattle Seahawks are primed to upset.

  • Florio: 49ers 27, Seahawks 20
  • Simms: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20

Another big disagreement, and perhaps the NFC West’s most defining game.

Lions at Packers: The Parsons effect

Green Bay stunned the league by acquiring Micah Parsons, instantly shifting perceptions of the Green Bay Packers.

  • Florio: Packers 24, Lions 20
  • Simms: Lions 28, Packers 27

Simms sticks with the Detroit Lions, who have won three straight at Lambeau. Florio believes the streak ends.

Ravens at Bills: Lamar in prime time

Few quarterbacks shine in prime time like Lamar Jackson. Against the Buffalo Bills, he aims to add another statement win.

  • Florio: Ravens 30, Bills 27
  • Simms: Ravens 30, Bills 21

Here, both analysts agree — Baltimore is simply too dangerous under the lights.

Vikings at Bears: Ben Johnson’s big debut

The Minnesota Vikings face a rejuvenated Chicago Bears coached by offensive mastermind Ben Johnson.

  • Florio: Vikings 24, Bears 20
  • Simms: Bears 23, Vikings 20

This might be the most intriguing underdog call, with Simms putting faith in Chicago’s new era.

What it all means

Week 1 offers more than just predictions — it highlights the shifting power struggles in the NFL. Simms’s willingness to ride with underdogs sets him apart, while Florio’s steady reliance on proven franchises could give him the edge if experience prevails.

One thing is certain: when Florio and Simms disagree, fans win. Their contrasting lenses spark debates that fuel the passion of football season.

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Caleb Williams Impresses, but the Bears’ Late-Game Decisions Raise Eyebrows

One impossible touchdown changed everything — but Chicago’s season may have been decided by what happened next

Published

5 days ago

on

January 30, 2026

By

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years

For one breathtaking moment, football stopped making sense.

With seconds left in a divisional-round playoff game, Caleb Williams launched a prayer — a 50-plus-yard, off-balance, back-foot moon shot — and somehow, impossibly, it found Cole Kmet in the end zone. It was the kind of touchdown that instantly joins NFL folklore, the sort of play fans remember for decades.

Suddenly, the Chicago Bears were one extra point away from tying the Los Angeles Rams — a scenario no one could have imagined just moments earlier.

And that’s when the question arrived, loud and unavoidable:

Why not go for two?

The dream-big argument

If Chicago converts the two-point try, the Rams are done. Season over. The Bears move one game away from the Super Bowl, potentially facing either a second-year quarterback or an injury replacement in the AFC. No matchup in the NFL is easy, but this was a window — and those windows don’t stay open long.

Ask Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino how rare Super Bowl chances truly are. Between them, 38 seasons, one Super Bowl appearance each. Even greatness doesn’t guarantee multiple shots.

Momentum, belief, shock value — everything screamed end it now. One play. One decision. Push all the chips to the middle.

But football decisions aren’t made in the clouds. They’re made in film rooms.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


Why Chicago didn’t gamble

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson didn’t flinch. Replays showed him calm, unmoved, almost indifferent to the miracle unfolding. He knew the touchdown created options — but also responsibility.

Because miracles don’t stack.

Just minutes earlier, Chicago had first-and-goal at the Rams’ 5-yard line. Three ineffective runs by De’Andre Swift and a failed fourth-down pass told Johnson everything he needed to know about his short-yardage confidence.

After the game, Johnson explained it plainly.

“Our goal-to-go situations hadn’t gone very cleanly,” he said. “Our inside-the-5 plan hadn’t worked out like we hoped. I just felt better about taking our chances in overtime.”

There was also time left — 13 seconds and two Rams timeouts. One explosive play, maybe a penalty, and Los Angeles could still have stolen it with a field goal even after a failed conversion.

So Chicago chose survival over glory.

How it unraveled anyway

The Bears lived to fight in overtime — and then watched their season collapse anyway. A brutal interception. A defensive breakdown. Game over.

And just like that, Williams-to-Kmet joined a heartbreaking fraternity: iconic plays that didn’t change the ending. Think Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald in Super Bowl XLIII. Think Julio Jones and that impossible toe-tap in Super Bowl LI.

Legendary moments — frozen in time — attached to losses.

So… was it the wrong call?

Emotionally? Maybe.

Strategically? Probably not.

Coaches don’t get paid to chase vibes. They get paid to trust evidence. And Chicago’s evidence said a single, all-or-nothing snap wasn’t the best bet.

That doesn’t make it satisfying. It just makes it honest.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


What this moment really means for Chicago

The Bears don’t leave this game empty-handed. They leave with something rarer than a win: belief.

You can’t build a franchise on miracle throws — but you can build a culture on refusing to quit. This team fought until the very last second, and that matters more than fans often admit.

Williams will be just 24 entering the 2026 season. Think about what he might look like at 27, 28, 29. There are no guarantees — Rodgers and Marino taught us that — but this is as good a foundation as any team could ask for.

Years from now, if Chicago is lucky, Williams-to-Kmet won’t be remembered as a cruel “what if.”

It will be remembered as the beginning.

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Sports

A Strong Night for Caleb Williams Ends With Doubts About the Bears’ Late Decisions

One impossible touchdown changed everything — but Chicago’s season may have been decided by what happened next

Published

1 week ago

on

January 27, 2026

By

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years

For one breathtaking moment, football stopped making sense.

With seconds left in a divisional-round playoff game, Caleb Williams launched a prayer — a 50-plus-yard, off-balance, back-foot moon shot — and somehow, impossibly, it found Cole Kmet in the end zone. It was the kind of touchdown that instantly joins NFL folklore, the sort of play fans remember for decades.

Suddenly, the Chicago Bears were one extra point away from tying the Los Angeles Rams — a scenario no one could have imagined just moments earlier.

And that’s when the question arrived, loud and unavoidable:

Why not go for two?

The dream-big argument

If Chicago converts the two-point try, the Rams are done. Season over. The Bears move one game away from the Super Bowl, potentially facing either a second-year quarterback or an injury replacement in the AFC. No matchup in the NFL is easy, but this was a window — and those windows don’t stay open long.

Ask Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino how rare Super Bowl chances truly are. Between them, 38 seasons, one Super Bowl appearance each. Even greatness doesn’t guarantee multiple shots.

Momentum, belief, shock value — everything screamed end it now. One play. One decision. Push all the chips to the middle.

But football decisions aren’t made in the clouds. They’re made in film rooms.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


Why Chicago didn’t gamble

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson didn’t flinch. Replays showed him calm, unmoved, almost indifferent to the miracle unfolding. He knew the touchdown created options — but also responsibility.

Because miracles don’t stack.

Just minutes earlier, Chicago had first-and-goal at the Rams’ 5-yard line. Three ineffective runs by De’Andre Swift and a failed fourth-down pass told Johnson everything he needed to know about his short-yardage confidence.

After the game, Johnson explained it plainly.

“Our goal-to-go situations hadn’t gone very cleanly,” he said. “Our inside-the-5 plan hadn’t worked out like we hoped. I just felt better about taking our chances in overtime.”

There was also time left — 13 seconds and two Rams timeouts. One explosive play, maybe a penalty, and Los Angeles could still have stolen it with a field goal even after a failed conversion.

So Chicago chose survival over glory.

How it unraveled anyway

The Bears lived to fight in overtime — and then watched their season collapse anyway. A brutal interception. A defensive breakdown. Game over.

And just like that, Williams-to-Kmet joined a heartbreaking fraternity: iconic plays that didn’t change the ending. Think Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald in Super Bowl XLIII. Think Julio Jones and that impossible toe-tap in Super Bowl LI.

Legendary moments — frozen in time — attached to losses.

So… was it the wrong call?

Emotionally? Maybe.

Strategically? Probably not.

Coaches don’t get paid to chase vibes. They get paid to trust evidence. And Chicago’s evidence said a single, all-or-nothing snap wasn’t the best bet.

That doesn’t make it satisfying. It just makes it honest.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


What this moment really means for Chicago

The Bears don’t leave this game empty-handed. They leave with something rarer than a win: belief.

You can’t build a franchise on miracle throws — but you can build a culture on refusing to quit. This team fought until the very last second, and that matters more than fans often admit.

Williams will be just 24 entering the 2026 season. Think about what he might look like at 27, 28, 29. There are no guarantees — Rodgers and Marino taught us that — but this is as good a foundation as any team could ask for.

Years from now, if Chicago is lucky, Williams-to-Kmet won’t be remembered as a cruel “what if.”

It will be remembered as the beginning.

Continue Reading

Sports

Caleb Williams Did His Part But Did the Bears Overthink the Finish

One impossible touchdown changed everything — but Chicago’s season may have been decided by what happened next

Published

2 weeks ago

on

January 21, 2026

By

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years

For one breathtaking moment, football stopped making sense.

With seconds left in a divisional-round playoff game, Caleb Williams launched a prayer — a 50-plus-yard, off-balance, back-foot moon shot — and somehow, impossibly, it found Cole Kmet in the end zone. It was the kind of touchdown that instantly joins NFL folklore, the sort of play fans remember for decades.

Suddenly, the Chicago Bears were one extra point away from tying the Los Angeles Rams — a scenario no one could have imagined just moments earlier.

And that’s when the question arrived, loud and unavoidable:

Why not go for two?

The dream-big argument

If Chicago converts the two-point try, the Rams are done. Season over. The Bears move one game away from the Super Bowl, potentially facing either a second-year quarterback or an injury replacement in the AFC. No matchup in the NFL is easy, but this was a window — and those windows don’t stay open long.

Ask Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino how rare Super Bowl chances truly are. Between them, 38 seasons, one Super Bowl appearance each. Even greatness doesn’t guarantee multiple shots.

Momentum, belief, shock value — everything screamed end it now. One play. One decision. Push all the chips to the middle.

But football decisions aren’t made in the clouds. They’re made in film rooms.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


Why Chicago didn’t gamble

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson didn’t flinch. Replays showed him calm, unmoved, almost indifferent to the miracle unfolding. He knew the touchdown created options — but also responsibility.

Because miracles don’t stack.

Just minutes earlier, Chicago had first-and-goal at the Rams’ 5-yard line. Three ineffective runs by De’Andre Swift and a failed fourth-down pass told Johnson everything he needed to know about his short-yardage confidence.

After the game, Johnson explained it plainly.

“Our goal-to-go situations hadn’t gone very cleanly,” he said. “Our inside-the-5 plan hadn’t worked out like we hoped. I just felt better about taking our chances in overtime.”

There was also time left — 13 seconds and two Rams timeouts. One explosive play, maybe a penalty, and Los Angeles could still have stolen it with a field goal even after a failed conversion.

So Chicago chose survival over glory.

How it unraveled anyway

The Bears lived to fight in overtime — and then watched their season collapse anyway. A brutal interception. A defensive breakdown. Game over.

And just like that, Williams-to-Kmet joined a heartbreaking fraternity: iconic plays that didn’t change the ending. Think Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald in Super Bowl XLIII. Think Julio Jones and that impossible toe-tap in Super Bowl LI.

Legendary moments — frozen in time — attached to losses.

So… was it the wrong call?

Emotionally? Maybe.

Strategically? Probably not.

Coaches don’t get paid to chase vibes. They get paid to trust evidence. And Chicago’s evidence said a single, all-or-nothing snap wasn’t the best bet.

That doesn’t make it satisfying. It just makes it honest.

Caleb Williams’ miracle touchdown gave the Bears hope — and a decision that will be debated for years


What this moment really means for Chicago

The Bears don’t leave this game empty-handed. They leave with something rarer than a win: belief.

You can’t build a franchise on miracle throws — but you can build a culture on refusing to quit. This team fought until the very last second, and that matters more than fans often admit.

Williams will be just 24 entering the 2026 season. Think about what he might look like at 27, 28, 29. There are no guarantees — Rodgers and Marino taught us that — but this is as good a foundation as any team could ask for.

Years from now, if Chicago is lucky, Williams-to-Kmet won’t be remembered as a cruel “what if.”

It will be remembered as the beginning.

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