Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley has delivered one of the starkest warnings yet for the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market, saying demand could collapse by nearly 50% once federal tax incentives disappear.

Speaking at Ford’s “Pro Accelerate” event in Detroit on Tuesday, Farley said EV sales, which are currently hovering around a record 10–12% of the U.S. auto market, could sink to just 5% starting next month.

“We’re going to find out in a month. I wouldn’t be surprised if EV sales in the U.S. go down to 5%,” Farley said.

The policy shift

The forecast comes as the $7,500 federal EV incentive ends under the Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” The legislation removed blanket EV subsidies but added perks for vehicles assembled in the U.S., regardless of whether they are electric or combustion-based.

The policy change is already altering consumer behavior. Cox Automotive projects EV sales hit a record 410,000 units in Q3 2025, a 21% jump year-on-year, as buyers rushed to take advantage of the expiring credit. But analysts expect demand to slump once the incentive is gone, with many buyers effectively “pulling forward” their purchases.

Expensive cars, cautious buyers

Farley was blunt about the challenge facing automakers:

“Customers are not interested in the $75,000 electric vehicle. They find them interesting. They’re fast, they’re efficient, you don’t go to the gas station, but they’re expensive.”

Ford currently sells models like the F-150 Lightning, which can top $90,000, and the Mustang Mach-E, a crossover positioned against rivals from Tesla and Hyundai. But Farley noted that customers seem more comfortable with hybrids and “partial electrification” for now, calling them “easier for customers to accept.”

Industry-wide ripple effects

The uncertainty could have major consequences for automakers’ massive EV investments. Ford has spent billions on EV development and battery plants across the U.S., but Farley acknowledged those facilities may now face “more stress.”

“We’ll fill them, but it will be more stress, because we had a four-year predictable policy. Now the policy changed. We all have to make adjustments,” he said.

The broader industry is watching closely. Tesla, General Motors, and Hyundai have all banked on rapid EV adoption to justify their expansion plans. The sudden shift could force a rethink in pricing, production, and supply chain strategies.

Skilled trades and the “essential economy”

Farley’s comments came during a Ford-hosted discussion on skilled labor and education. The event drew executives and public officials who emphasized the need for training workers to support both traditional auto manufacturing and the emerging EV ecosystem.

While Farley expressed optimism that EVs will remain “a vibrant industry,” he admitted it will be “way smaller than we thought,” at least in the near term. For automakers, the message is clear: the road to electrification just got a lot bumpier.
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The electric vehicle market in the United States just witnessed a surge unlike anything in recent memory. With federal tax credits for EVs — worth up to $7,500 on new cars and $4,000 on used ones — set to expire on September 30, buyers across the country rushed to secure deals before the clock ran out.

The Republican tax and spending package, passed in July, abruptly brought forward the deadline, creating what analysts have dubbed “the great EV sprint.” To qualify, buyers simply needed a binding contract signed before the deadline, even if delivery of the vehicle was scheduled for later.

“The past couple of weeks — even in the past several days — EV sales just exploded,” said Matt Jones, senior director of industry relations at TrueCar (LinkedIn). “It’s been bonkers.”

Tesla’s countdown and the power of urgency

Some automakers wasted no time amplifying the urgency. Tesla (Wikipedia) prominently featured a ticking countdown clock on its website, reminding buyers of the exact second they had left to lock in their purchase. Other dealers ramped up ad campaigns, targeting consumers who were previously unaware of the tax incentive.

The strategy worked. According to Cox Automotive EV sales in Q3 jumped 21.1% year-over-year, and were 30% higher than in spring 2025. J.D. Power reported that EVs made up over 11% of all U.S. auto sales in August, a figure matched only once before — in December 2024, when buyers rushed to close deals before Donald Trump began his second presidential term.

Used EVs: the hottest ticket under $25k

The frenzy wasn’t limited to new vehicles. Used EVs under $25,000 — the price band eligible for the used tax credit — became the fastest sellers in the market, according to Cars Commerce , parent company of Cars.com.

The surge was so significant that analysts believe it boosted the entire U.S. auto market, with Edmunds forecasting the strongest Q3 new vehicle sales since before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

But will there be an “EV hangover”?

Not everyone is celebrating. Analysts warn that the spike could be followed by a slowdown. “The end of the tax credit created a rush in September, but it could also trigger an EV hangover in the months ahead,” cautioned Ivan Drury of Edmunds.

In other words, consumers who rushed to buy an EV before the deadline likely won’t be shopping again this year, leaving dealerships with fewer potential buyers in the short term.

The Rhodium Group estimates that the early end of the credits could reduce EV sales by 16% to 38% compared to projected growth.

Long-term growth still intact

Despite the uncertainty, long-term EV adoption appears stable. J.D. Power surveys show more than half of new-vehicle shoppers remain interested in going electric within the next year, suggesting that consumer appetite isn’t just tied to government incentives.

Automakers like General Motors and Ford are still heavily investing in EV technology to compete with China’s rapidly expanding market, while also grappling with tariffs and supply chain costs.

The real test, experts say, will be whether automakers can bring down EV prices enough to maintain momentum without federal subsidies. For now, September’s sales boom has shown one thing clearly: when incentives are on the line, American buyers will move fast.
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If you own a BMW manufactured between 2019 and 2022, you may want to think twice before parking it inside your garage. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has announced a sweeping recall of nearly 200,000 vehicles, citing the risk of potential fire hazards.

According to the NHTSA, the recall involves several popular models, including the 2019–22 BMW Z4, 2019–21 BMW 330i, 2020–22 BMW X3 and X4, 2020–22 BMW 530i, 2021–22 BMW 430i (standard and convertible), and the 2022 BMW 230i. Interestingly, the recall also extends to around 1,500 Toyota Supra models built by BMW during the same production period.

The agency explained that the issue stems from a corroding engine starter relay that could overheat, short circuit, and potentially cause a fire. That risk exists whether the car is running or parked.

“Owners should park outside and away from buildings and other vehicles until they either confirm their vehicle is not subject to the recall or have their vehicle remedied,” NHTSA advised in its official statement.

Recall Plan and Timeline

BMW has not yet issued a detailed public response, but the German automaker will conduct a phased recall due to limited parts availability. Interim letters will go out to vehicle owners beginning November 14, 2025, followed by a second round of notices once remedy parts are available.

From November 14 onward, vehicle owners can check if their cars are affected by visiting NHTSA.gov/recalls and entering their license plate number or 17-digit VIN. They can also reach the Vehicle Safety Hotline at 888-327-4236.

A Troubling Déjà Vu for BMW

This isn’t the first time BMW has faced fire-related recalls. In 2017, the company recalled over 1 million vehicles across the U.S. over similar issues, later expanding the recall to an additional 185,000 units in 2019. That history makes the latest development particularly concerning for loyal customers and the company’s reputation.

Industry experts suggest that while fire-related recalls are not unique to BMW, they can deal a significant blow to consumer confidence. For a brand often associated with performance and luxury, repeat safety concerns raise tough questions.

What Owners Should Do

• Park vehicles outside and away from structures.
• Check eligibility at NHTSA.gov/recalls starting Nov. 14.
• Wait for official BMW recall notices in the mail.
• Contact BMW customer service for further assistance.

Until then, drivers of the affected BMWs are being urged to take the warning seriously. Fires may be rare, but the risk is real — and for many, that means keeping their luxury sedan or SUV in the driveway instead of the garage.
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